Markets around the event · cumulative change, 10 sessions before to 20 after · shaded: normal range of Chinese yuan
Chinese yuanBrent oilSwiss francUS dollar
US and China agree to cut tariffs
After talks in Geneva, the United States and China agree to lower their tariffs for 90 days. Riftrate read 72 the day before and 71 at its highest within 14 days.
Riftrate the day before72Tension
Within 14 days71 ▼ −1.6Tension
CategorySanctionsSanctions and trade wars
CountryChina
What markets didfrom the last close before the event
| Market | Next session | After 5 sessions | After 20 sessions | How unusual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chinese yuan | +0.5% | +0.4% | +0.8% | bigger than 58% of 5-day moves |
| Brent oil | +1.6% | +1.5% | +7.0% | bigger than 25% of 5-day moves |
| US 10-year yield | +0.08 pt | +0.06 pt | +0.12 pt | bigger than 28% of 5-day moves |
| US dollar | +0.8% | +0.5% | -1.3% | bigger than 47% of 5-day moves |
| Swiss franc | -1.5% | -1.2% | +1.1% | bigger than 73% of 5-day moves |
| Japanese yen | -2.0% | -0.6% | +0.5% | bigger than 34% of 5-day moves |
Correlation or cause? A market that moves on the day of an event is not proof that the event moved it. “How unusual” compares the move with every 5-day move of the previous three years: above 95%, the move stands out from normal noise. Read it with the news of the day, and see how to tell correlation from causation. Not investment advice.
Riftrate · 60 days before and after
Source for the event: en.wikipedia.org. Market data: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
More: sanctions and trade wars
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