Markets around the event · cumulative change, 10 sessions before to 20 after · shaded: normal range of Brent oil
Brent oilSwiss francUS dollar
Attack on the US Capitol
Supporters of Donald Trump storm the US Capitol during the certification of the presidential election. Riftrate read 19 the day before and 62 at its highest within 14 days.
Riftrate the day before19Complacency
Within 14 days62 ▲ +43.2Tension
CategoryPolitical crisisCoups and political crises
CountryUnited States
What markets didfrom the last close before the event
| Market | Next session | After 5 sessions | After 20 sessions | How unusual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent oil | +1.2% | +5.3% | +8.4% | bigger than 72% of 5-day moves |
| US 10-year yield | +0.08 pt | +0.19 pt | +0.19 pt | bigger than 93% of 5-day moves |
| US dollar | -0.1% | +0.5% | +1.6% | bigger than 58% of 5-day moves |
| Swiss franc | -0.3% | -1.2% | -2.7% | bigger than 83% of 5-day moves |
| Japanese yen | -0.5% | -1.3% | -2.6% | bigger than 86% of 5-day moves |
Correlation or cause? A market that moves on the day of an event is not proof that the event moved it. “How unusual” compares the move with every 5-day move of the previous three years: above 95%, the move stands out from normal noise. Read it with the news of the day, and see how to tell correlation from causation. Not investment advice.
Riftrate · 60 days before and after
Source for the event: en.wikipedia.org. Market data: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.