Markets around the event · cumulative change, 10 sessions before to 20 after · shaded: normal range of Brent oil
Brent oilSwiss francUS dollar
Wagner mutiny in Russia
Wagner mercenaries seize Rostov-on-Don and march towards Moscow before standing down. Riftrate read 67 the day before and 73 at its highest within 14 days.
Riftrate the day before67Tension
Within 14 days73 ▲ +6.2Tension
CategoryPolitical crisisCoups and political crises
CountryRussia
What markets didfrom the last close before the event
| Market | Next session | After 5 sessions | After 20 sessions | How unusual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent oil | +0.4% | +1.3% | +10.2% | bigger than 21% of 5-day moves |
| US 10-year yield | -0.02 pt | +0.07 pt | +0.12 pt | bigger than 46% of 5-day moves |
| US dollar | -0.1% | +0.2% | -1.1% | bigger than 17% of 5-day moves |
| Swiss franc | +0.4% | +0.4% | +3.6% | bigger than 31% of 5-day moves |
| Japanese yen | +0.2% | -0.5% | +1.8% | bigger than 37% of 5-day moves |
Correlation or cause? A market that moves on the day of an event is not proof that the event moved it. “How unusual” compares the move with every 5-day move of the previous three years: above 95%, the move stands out from normal noise. Read it with the news of the day, and see how to tell correlation from causation. Not investment advice.
Riftrate · 60 days before and after
Source for the event: en.wikipedia.org. Market data: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.