Markets around the event · cumulative change, 10 sessions before to 20 after · shaded: normal range of British pound
British poundBrent oilSwiss francUS dollar
UK “mini-budget” crisis
Unfunded tax cuts announced by the Truss government send the pound to a record low and force the Bank of England to intervene. Riftrate read 42 the day before and 63 at its highest within 14 days.
Riftrate the day before42Easing
Within 14 days63 ▲ +21.0Tension
CategoryPolitical crisisCoups and political crises
CountryUnited Kingdom
What markets didfrom the last close before the event
| Market | Next session | After 5 sessions | After 20 sessions | How unusual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| British pound | -3.1% | -2.0% | +0.2% | bigger than 90% of 5-day moves |
| Brent oil | -6.8% | -1.1% | +1.2% | bigger than 19% of 5-day moves |
| US 10-year yield | -0.01 pt | +0.06 pt | +0.51 pt | bigger than 46% of 5-day moves |
| US dollar | +0.9% | +1.1% | +1.2% | bigger than 88% of 5-day moves |
| Swiss franc | -0.1% | +0.1% | -1.8% | bigger than 6% of 5-day moves |
| Japanese yen | -0.7% | -1.6% | -2.9% | bigger than 86% of 5-day moves |
Correlation or cause? A market that moves on the day of an event is not proof that the event moved it. “How unusual” compares the move with every 5-day move of the previous three years: above 95%, the move stands out from normal noise. Read it with the news of the day, and see how to tell correlation from causation. Not investment advice.
Riftrate · 60 days before and after
Source for the event: en.wikipedia.org. Market data: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.