Markets around the event · cumulative change, 10 sessions before to 20 after · shaded: normal range of Brent oil
Brent oilSwiss francUS dollar
Nagorno-Karabakh ceasefire
Armenia, Azerbaijan and Russia sign a ceasefire ending six weeks of war. Riftrate read 14 the day before and 2 at its lowest within 14 days.
Riftrate the day before14Complacency
Within 14 days2 ▼ −12.0Complacency
CategoryPeacePeace deals and ceasefires
CountryAzerbaijan
What markets didfrom the last close before the event
| Market | Next session | After 5 sessions | After 20 sessions | How unusual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent oil | +3.2% | +4.3% | +18.8% | bigger than 65% of 5-day moves |
| US 10-year yield | +0.02 pt | -0.09 pt | -0.01 pt | bigger than 72% of 5-day moves |
| US dollar | -0.0% | -0.4% | -1.9% | bigger than 40% of 5-day moves |
| Swiss franc | -0.1% | +0.2% | +2.8% | bigger than 19% of 5-day moves |
| Japanese yen | +0.2% | +1.3% | +1.2% | bigger than 85% of 5-day moves |
Correlation or cause? A market that moves on the day of an event is not proof that the event moved it. “How unusual” compares the move with every 5-day move of the previous three years: above 95%, the move stands out from normal noise. Read it with the news of the day, and see how to tell correlation from causation. Not investment advice.
Riftrate · 60 days before and after
Source for the event: en.wikipedia.org. Market data: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.