Markets around the event · cumulative change, 10 sessions before to 20 after · shaded: normal range of Brent oil
Brent oilSwiss francUS dollar
Black Sea Grain Initiative
Russia and Ukraine sign separate deals with Turkey and the UN to resume grain exports from Ukrainian ports. Riftrate read 61 the day before and 54 at its lowest within 14 days.
Riftrate the day before61Tension
Within 14 days54 ▼ −6.5Neutral
CategoryPeacePeace deals and ceasefires
CountryUkraine
What markets didfrom the last close before the event
| Market | Next session | After 5 sessions | After 20 sessions | How unusual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent oil | -5.4% | -2.8% | -14.6% | bigger than 44% of 5-day moves |
| US 10-year yield | -0.14 pt | -0.23 pt | -0.03 pt | bigger than 93% of 5-day moves |
| US dollar | -0.4% | -0.6% | -0.4% | bigger than 65% of 5-day moves |
| Swiss franc | +0.8% | +1.3% | +1.5% | bigger than 82% of 5-day moves |
| Japanese yen | +1.3% | +2.6% | +2.0% | bigger than 96% of 5-day moves |
Correlation or cause? A market that moves on the day of an event is not proof that the event moved it. “How unusual” compares the move with every 5-day move of the previous three years: above 95%, the move stands out from normal noise. Read it with the news of the day, and see how to tell correlation from causation. Not investment advice.
Riftrate · 60 days before and after
Source for the event: en.wikipedia.org. Market data: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.