Markets around the event · cumulative change, 10 sessions before to 20 after · shaded: normal range of Brent oil
Brent oilSwiss francUS dollar
Gaza ceasefire takes effect
A ceasefire between Israel and Hamas takes effect, with the first exchange of hostages and prisoners. Riftrate read 33 the day before and 30 at its lowest within 14 days.
Riftrate the day before33Easing
Within 14 days30 ▼ −2.6Easing
CategoryPeacePeace deals and ceasefires
CountryIsrael & Gaza
What markets didfrom the last close before the event
| Market | Next session | After 5 sessions | After 20 sessions | How unusual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent oil | -1.6% | -5.2% | -9.4% | bigger than 72% of 5-day moves |
| US 10-year yield | -0.04 pt | -0.08 pt | -0.06 pt | bigger than 38% of 5-day moves |
| US dollar | -0.8% | -1.1% | -1.7% | bigger than 87% of 5-day moves |
| Swiss franc | +0.9% | +1.6% | +1.4% | bigger than 84% of 5-day moves |
| Japanese yen | +0.5% | +1.3% | +3.0% | bigger than 64% of 5-day moves |
Correlation or cause? A market that moves on the day of an event is not proof that the event moved it. “How unusual” compares the move with every 5-day move of the previous three years: above 95%, the move stands out from normal noise. Read it with the news of the day, and see how to tell correlation from causation. Not investment advice.
Riftrate · 60 days before and after
Source for the event: en.wikipedia.org. Market data: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.