Markets around the event · cumulative change, 10 sessions before to 20 after · shaded: normal range of Brent oil
Brent oilSwiss francUS dollar
US–Taliban agreement in Doha
The United States and the Taliban sign an agreement on the withdrawal of foreign troops from Afghanistan. Riftrate read 46 the day before and 21 at its lowest within 14 days.
Riftrate the day before46Neutral
Within 14 days21 ▼ −24.6Complacency
CategoryPeacePeace deals and ceasefires
CountryAfghanistan
What markets didfrom the last close before the event
| Market | Next session | After 5 sessions | After 20 sessions | How unusual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent oil | +2.4% | -11.1% | -56.4% | bigger than 99% of 5-day moves |
| US 10-year yield | -0.03 pt | -0.39 pt | -0.41 pt | bigger than 100% of 5-day moves |
| US dollar | -0.7% | -0.8% | +4.0% | bigger than 83% of 5-day moves |
| Swiss franc | +1.0% | +3.3% | +1.2% | bigger than 100% of 5-day moves |
| Japanese yen | +0.1% | +2.7% | -0.0% | bigger than 99% of 5-day moves |
Correlation or cause? A market that moves on the day of an event is not proof that the event moved it. “How unusual” compares the move with every 5-day move of the previous three years: above 95%, the move stands out from normal noise. Read it with the news of the day, and see how to tell correlation from causation. Not investment advice.
Riftrate · 60 days before and after
Source for the event: en.wikipedia.org. Market data: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.