Markets around the event · cumulative change, 10 sessions before to 20 after · shaded: normal range of Brent oil
Brent oilSwiss francUS dollar
War in Nagorno-Karabakh
Fighting breaks out between Azerbaijan and Armenian forces over Nagorno-Karabakh. Riftrate read 33 the day before and 49 at its highest within 14 days.
Riftrate the day before33Easing
Within 14 days49 ▲ +16.3Neutral
CategoryWarWars and attacks
CountryAzerbaijan
What markets didfrom the last close before the event
| Market | Next session | After 5 sessions | After 20 sessions | How unusual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent oil | +1.7% | -7.1% | -0.5% | bigger than 84% of 5-day moves |
| US 10-year yield | +0.01 pt | +0.04 pt | +0.15 pt | bigger than 36% of 5-day moves |
| US dollar | -0.2% | -1.0% | -2.2% | bigger than 86% of 5-day moves |
| Swiss franc | +0.5% | +0.9% | +2.4% | bigger than 74% of 5-day moves |
| Japanese yen | +0.1% | +0.2% | +0.7% | bigger than 19% of 5-day moves |
Correlation or cause? A market that moves on the day of an event is not proof that the event moved it. “How unusual” compares the move with every 5-day move of the previous three years: above 95%, the move stands out from normal noise. Read it with the news of the day, and see how to tell correlation from causation. Not investment advice.
Riftrate · 60 days before and after
Source for the event: en.wikipedia.org. Market data: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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