Markets around the event · cumulative change, 10 sessions before to 20 after · shaded: normal range of Indian rupee
Indian rupeeBrent oilSwiss francUS dollar
India strikes Pakistan
India strikes targets in Pakistan after a militant attack in Kashmir; four days of fighting follow before a ceasefire. Riftrate read 58 the day before and 74 at its highest within 14 days.
Riftrate the day before58Tension
Within 14 days74 ▲ +16.0Tension
CategoryWarWars and attacks
CountryPakistan
What markets didfrom the last close before the event
| Market | Next session | After 5 sessions | After 20 sessions | How unusual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indian rupee | -0.4% | -1.1% | -1.6% | bigger than 94% of 5-day moves |
| Brent oil | -3.3% | +7.3% | +6.9% | bigger than 89% of 5-day moves |
| US 10-year yield | -0.04 pt | +0.19 pt | +0.07 pt | bigger than 79% of 5-day moves |
| US dollar | +0.1% | +0.8% | -0.8% | bigger than 69% of 5-day moves |
| Swiss franc | +0.3% | -2.0% | +0.7% | bigger than 92% of 5-day moves |
| Japanese yen | -0.5% | -3.4% | -0.1% | bigger than 97% of 5-day moves |
Correlation or cause? A market that moves on the day of an event is not proof that the event moved it. “How unusual” compares the move with every 5-day move of the previous three years: above 95%, the move stands out from normal noise. Read it with the news of the day, and see how to tell correlation from causation. Not investment advice.
Riftrate · 60 days before and after
Source for the event: en.wikipedia.org. Market data: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
More: wars and attacks
The full libraryIran war 2026US intervention in Venezuela 2026Twelve-Day War 2025Iran strikes Israel 2024US and UK strike the Houthis 2024October 7 attack 2023Pelosi visits Taiwan, China drills 2022Russia invades Ukraine 2022Fall of Kabul 2021War in Nagorno-Karabakh 2020Soleimani killed 2020Attack on Saudi oil facilities 2019Western strikes on Syria 2018