Markets around the event · cumulative change, 10 sessions before to 20 after · shaded: normal range of Taiwan dollar
Taiwan dollarChinese yuanBrent oilSwiss franc
Pelosi visits Taiwan, China drills
The US House Speaker visits Taipei; China answers with large military drills around the island. Riftrate read 58 the day before and 86 at its highest within 14 days.
Riftrate the day before58Tension
Within 14 days86 ▲ +28.9Crisis
CategoryWarWars and attacks
CountryTaiwan
What markets didfrom the last close before the event
| Market | Next session | After 5 sessions | After 20 sessions | How unusual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taiwan dollar | +0.0% | -0.2% | -1.4% | bigger than 31% of 5-day moves |
| Chinese yuan | +0.3% | +0.3% | -2.0% | bigger than 45% of 5-day moves |
| Brent oil | +0.4% | -2.5% | -6.4% | bigger than 40% of 5-day moves |
| US 10-year yield | +0.15 pt | +0.17 pt | +0.52 pt | bigger than 85% of 5-day moves |
| US dollar | +0.4% | +0.4% | +1.7% | bigger than 42% of 5-day moves |
| Swiss franc | -0.6% | -0.6% | -2.1% | bigger than 51% of 5-day moves |
| Japanese yen | -0.4% | -2.2% | -5.0% | bigger than 94% of 5-day moves |
Correlation or cause? A market that moves on the day of an event is not proof that the event moved it. “How unusual” compares the move with every 5-day move of the previous three years: above 95%, the move stands out from normal noise. Read it with the news of the day, and see how to tell correlation from causation. Not investment advice.
Riftrate · 60 days before and after
Source for the event: en.wikipedia.org. Market data: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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