Markets around the event · cumulative change, 10 sessions before to 20 after · shaded: normal range of Brent oil
Brent oilSwiss francUS dollar
US midterm elections 2022
Republicans win a narrow House majority; Democrats keep control of the Senate. Riftrate read 50 the day before and 60 at its highest within 14 days.
Riftrate the day before50Neutral
Within 14 days60 ▲ +10.1Tension
CategoryElectionElections
CountryUnited States
What markets didfrom the last close before the event
| Market | Next session | After 5 sessions | After 20 sessions | How unusual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stock-market stress | -0.02 pt | -0.07 pt | -0.09 pt | bigger than 56% of 5-day moves |
| Volatility | -0.05 pt | -0.30 pt | -0.64 pt | bigger than 62% of 5-day moves |
| Brent oil | -3.0% | -6.3% | -16.5% | bigger than 73% of 5-day moves |
| US 10-year yield | -0.08 pt | -0.42 pt | -0.80 pt | bigger than 100% of 5-day moves |
| US dollar | -0.5% | -2.6% | -2.8% | bigger than 98% of 5-day moves |
| Swiss franc | +0.7% | +4.9% | +5.4% | bigger than 100% of 5-day moves |
| Japanese yen | +0.9% | +5.2% | +7.4% | bigger than 100% of 5-day moves |
Correlation or cause? A market that moves on the day of an event is not proof that the event moved it. “How unusual” compares the move with every 5-day move of the previous three years: above 95%, the move stands out from normal noise. Read it with the news of the day, and see how to tell correlation from causation. Not investment advice.
Riftrate · 60 days before and after
Source for the event: en.wikipedia.org. Market data: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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