Markets around the event · cumulative change, 10 sessions before to 20 after · shaded: normal range of Brent oil
Brent oilSwiss francUS dollar
US midterm elections 2018
Democrats win control of the House of Representatives; Republicans keep the Senate. Riftrate read 58 the day before and 54 at its highest within 14 days.
Riftrate the day before58Tension
Within 14 days54 ▼ −4.1Neutral
CategoryElectionElections
CountryUnited States
What markets didfrom the last close before the event
| Market | Next session | After 5 sessions | After 20 sessions | How unusual |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stock-market stress | -0.02 pt | +0.03 pt | +0.00 pt | bigger than 25% of 5-day moves |
| Volatility | -0.05 pt | -0.24 pt | -0.05 pt | bigger than 71% of 5-day moves |
| Brent oil | -2.8% | -3.9% | -17.2% | bigger than 62% of 5-day moves |
| US 10-year yield | +0.02 pt | -0.06 pt | -0.33 pt | bigger than 50% of 5-day moves |
| US dollar | -0.1% | +0.8% | +0.6% | bigger than 76% of 5-day moves |
| Swiss franc | +0.1% | -0.3% | +1.3% | bigger than 23% of 5-day moves |
| Japanese yen | -0.1% | -0.7% | +0.7% | bigger than 42% of 5-day moves |
Correlation or cause? A market that moves on the day of an event is not proof that the event moved it. “How unusual” compares the move with every 5-day move of the previous three years: above 95%, the move stands out from normal noise. Read it with the news of the day, and see how to tell correlation from causation. Not investment advice.
Riftrate · 60 days before and after
Source for the event: en.wikipedia.org. Market data: FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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