RIFTRATE Get the gauge

World tension in January 2026

In January 2026, Riftrate averaged 53.8 (Neutral), up 16.7 points from December 2025. It peaked at 74.1 on 11 January 2026 and was lowest at 39.0 on 24 January 2026. Major event: US intervention in Venezuela (3 January 2026).

Average53.8Neutral
High74.111 January 2026
Low39.024 January 2026
Change vs December▲ +16.7average to average
Riftrate · January 2026
025507510017 Dec24 Dec31 Dec7 Jan14 Jan21 Jan28 JanUS intervention in Venezuela, 3 January 2026
The signals this monthmonthly average, 0 = calm, 100 = tense
SignalAveragevs Dec
Diplomatic rupture68▲ +32.5
Geopolitical risk (GPR)83▲ +26.4
Media tone64▲ +25.6
Economic coercion18▼ −12.7
Terrorism & mass violence43▲ +12.6
Domestic unrest31▲ +12.4
War & military35▲ +6.9
Escalation momentum68▲ +0.8

January 2026 in context

By its average, January 2026 was the 42nd tensest of 104 months since March 2018. Riftrate spent 13 of its 31 days in Tension or Crisis and 12 in Easing or Complacency. That is 17.1 points higher than in January 2025 (36.6). The countries whose news was most about armed violence: Gaza and the West Bank (23.1%), Syria (19.0%), Lebanon (17.1%).

Day by day
DayRiftrateZoneDay change
31 January 202644.9Neutral▲ +1.0
30 January 202643.9Easing▲ +2.4
29 January 202641.5Easing▲ +2.3
28 January 202639.2Easing▼ −0.2
27 January 202639.3Easing▼ −0.1
26 January 202639.5Easing0.0
25 January 202639.4Easing▲ +0.4
24 January 202639.0Easing▼ −0.3
23 January 202639.3Easing▼ −3.2
22 January 202642.5Easing▼ −4.6
21 January 202647.1Neutral▼ −3.9
20 January 202651.0Neutral▼ −4.6
19 January 202655.6Tension▼ −5.3
18 January 202660.9Tension▼ −5.6
17 January 202666.4Tension▼ −4.1
16 January 202670.5Tension▼ −1.9
15 January 202672.4Tension▼ −1.6
14 January 202674.0Tension▲ +0.1
13 January 202673.9Tension▲ +0.5
12 January 202673.5Tension▼ −0.7
11 January 202674.1Tension▲ +0.7
10 January 202673.4Tension▲ +2.6
9 January 202670.9Tension▲ +6.5
8 January 202664.4Tension▲ +6.5
7 January 202657.9Tension▲ +4.2
6 January 202653.7Neutral▲ +3.3
5 January 202650.3Neutral▲ +4.7
4 January 202645.7Neutral▲ +3.4
3 January 202642.2Easing▲ +1.8
2 January 202640.5Easing▲ +0.8
1 January 202639.7Easing▲ +1.4
Previous: December 2025All of 2026Next: February 2026

Frequently asked questions

How tense was the world in January 2026?

Riftrate, the index of world tension from 0 (calm) to 100 (crisis), averaged 53.8 (Neutral) in January 2026: the 42nd tensest of 104 months since March 2018.

What was the tensest day of January 2026?

11 January 2026, when Riftrate read 74.1 (Tension).

Which countries were most tense in January 2026?

Gaza and the West Bank (23.1% of its news about armed violence), Syria (19.0% of its news about armed violence), Lebanon (17.1% of its news about armed violence).