Riftrate · December 2025
World tension in December 2025
In December 2025, Riftrate averaged 37.1 (Easing), up 8.2 points from November 2025. It peaked at 56.3 on 20 December 2025 and was lowest at 25.9 on 11 December 2025.
Average37.1Easing
High56.320 December 2025
Low25.911 December 2025
Change vs November▲ +8.2average to average
The signals this monthmonthly average, 0 = calm, 100 = tense
| Signal | Average | vs Nov |
|---|---|---|
| Escalation momentum | 67 | ▲ +43.0 |
| Media tone | 38 | ▲ +27.8 |
| Terrorism & mass violence | 31 | ▼ −20.6 |
| Geopolitical risk (GPR) | 57 | ▲ +20.2 |
| Diplomatic rupture | 36 | ▼ −12.1 |
| Economic coercion | 31 | ▼ −11.1 |
| Domestic unrest | 18 | ▼ −4.0 |
| War & military | 28 | ▼ −1.0 |
December 2025 in context
By its average, December 2025 was the 80th tensest of 104 months since March 2018. Riftrate spent 1 of its 31 days in Tension or Crisis and 24 in Easing or Complacency. That is 7.7 points lower than in December 2024 (44.8). The countries whose news was most about armed violence: Gaza and the West Bank (22.5%), Sudan (19.0%), Syria (18.6%).
Day by day
| Day | Riftrate | Zone | Day change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 December 2025 | 38.3 | Easing | ▲ +1.4 |
| 30 December 2025 | 36.9 | Easing | ▲ +2.1 |
| 29 December 2025 | 34.8 | Easing | ▼ −0.5 |
| 28 December 2025 | 35.3 | Easing | 0.0 |
| 27 December 2025 | 35.2 | Easing | ▲ +0.9 |
| 26 December 2025 | 34.3 | Easing | ▼ −1.7 |
| 25 December 2025 | 36.0 | Easing | ▼ −4.8 |
| 24 December 2025 | 40.8 | Easing | ▼ −2.8 |
| 23 December 2025 | 43.6 | Easing | ▼ −3.3 |
| 22 December 2025 | 46.9 | Neutral | ▼ −5.5 |
| 21 December 2025 | 52.4 | Neutral | ▼ −3.9 |
| 20 December 2025 | 56.3 | Tension | ▲ +1.1 |
| 19 December 2025 | 55.2 | Neutral | ▲ +1.4 |
| 18 December 2025 | 53.7 | Neutral | ▲ +3.4 |
| 17 December 2025 | 50.3 | Neutral | ▲ +4.4 |
| 16 December 2025 | 45.9 | Neutral | ▲ +4.9 |
| 15 December 2025 | 41.0 | Easing | ▲ +7.1 |
| 14 December 2025 | 33.8 | Easing | ▲ +6.5 |
| 13 December 2025 | 27.4 | Easing | ▲ +1.2 |
| 12 December 2025 | 26.1 | Easing | ▲ +0.2 |
| 11 December 2025 | 25.9 | Easing | ▼ −1.0 |
| 10 December 2025 | 26.9 | Easing | ▼ −0.8 |
| 9 December 2025 | 27.7 | Easing | ▼ −1.0 |
| 8 December 2025 | 28.7 | Easing | ▼ −1.3 |
| 7 December 2025 | 30.0 | Easing | ▼ −1.3 |
| 6 December 2025 | 31.3 | Easing | ▲ +0.2 |
| 5 December 2025 | 31.2 | Easing | ▲ +0.4 |
| 4 December 2025 | 30.7 | Easing | ▲ +0.5 |
| 3 December 2025 | 30.2 | Easing | ▼ −0.5 |
| 2 December 2025 | 30.7 | Easing | ▼ −1.6 |
| 1 December 2025 | 32.3 | Easing | ▼ −0.3 |
Frequently asked questions
How tense was the world in December 2025?
Riftrate, the index of world tension from 0 (calm) to 100 (crisis), averaged 37.1 (Easing) in December 2025: the 80th tensest of 104 months since March 2018.
What was the tensest day of December 2025?
20 December 2025, when Riftrate read 56.3 (Tension).
Which countries were most tense in December 2025?
Gaza and the West Bank (22.5% of its news about armed violence), Sudan (19.0% of its news about armed violence), Syria (18.6% of its news about armed violence).