RIFTRATE Get the gauge

World tension in February 2026

In February 2026, Riftrate averaged 32.9 (Easing), down 20.8 points from January 2026. It peaked at 67.0 on 28 February 2026 and was lowest at 16.4 on 19 February 2026. Major event: Iran war (28 February 2026).

Average32.9Easing
High67.028 February 2026
Low16.419 February 2026
Change vs January▼ −20.8average to average
Riftrate · February 2026
025507510017 Jan24 Jan31 Jan7 Feb14 Feb21 Feb28 FebIran war, 28 February 2026
The signals this monthmonthly average, 0 = calm, 100 = tense
SignalAveragevs Jan
Geopolitical risk (GPR)46▼ −37.7
Escalation momentum34▼ −34.7
Media tone35▼ −28.9
Diplomatic rupture53▼ −15.5
Economic coercion30▲ +12.1
War & military29▼ −5.9
Terrorism & mass violence41▼ −2.4
Domestic unrest29▼ −1.3

February 2026 in context

By its average, February 2026 was the 91st tensest of 104 months since March 2018. Riftrate spent 2 of its 28 days in Tension or Crisis and 24 in Easing or Complacency. That is 2.4 points lower than in February 2025 (35.3). The countries whose news was most about armed violence: Gaza and the West Bank (21.3%), Niger (17.3%), Lebanon (16.1%).

Day by day
DayRiftrateZoneDay change
28 February 202667.0Tension▲ +11.1
27 February 202655.9Tension▲ +5.6
26 February 202650.2Neutral▲ +5.9
25 February 202644.3Easing▲ +7.3
24 February 202637.0Easing▲ +9.0
23 February 202628.0Easing▲ +5.8
22 February 202622.2Complacency▲ +3.2
21 February 202619.0Complacency▲ +1.5
20 February 202617.5Complacency▲ +1.1
19 February 202616.4Complacency▼ −0.4
18 February 202616.7Complacency▼ −1.0
17 February 202617.7Complacency▼ −1.1
16 February 202618.8Complacency▼ −1.6
15 February 202620.4Complacency▼ −1.8
14 February 202622.2Complacency▼ −2.2
13 February 202624.4Complacency▼ −2.0
12 February 202626.4Easing▼ −1.5
11 February 202627.9Easing▼ −3.5
10 February 202631.3Easing▼ −2.3
9 February 202633.6Easing▼ −1.2
8 February 202634.9Easing▼ −2.5
7 February 202637.4Easing▼ −1.7
6 February 202639.0Easing▼ −1.7
5 February 202640.8Easing▼ −1.7
4 February 202642.4Easing▲ +0.5
3 February 202641.9Easing▼ −2.0
2 February 202644.0Easing▼ −0.9
1 February 202644.9Neutral0.0
Previous: January 2026All of 2026Next: March 2026

Frequently asked questions

How tense was the world in February 2026?

Riftrate, the index of world tension from 0 (calm) to 100 (crisis), averaged 32.9 (Easing) in February 2026: the 91st tensest of 104 months since March 2018.

What was the tensest day of February 2026?

28 February 2026, when Riftrate read 67.0 (Tension).

Which countries were most tense in February 2026?

Gaza and the West Bank (21.3% of its news about armed violence), Niger (17.3% of its news about armed violence), Lebanon (16.1% of its news about armed violence).