RIFTRATE Get the gauge

World tension in March 2026

In March 2026, Riftrate averaged 85.6 (Crisis), up 52.6 points from February 2026. It peaked at 93.1 on 7 March 2026 and was lowest at 73.8 on 29 March 2026.

Average85.6Crisis
High93.17 March 2026
Low73.829 March 2026
Change vs February▲ +52.6average to average
Riftrate · March 2026
025507510014 Feb21 Feb28 Feb7 Mar14 Mar21 Mar28 MarIran war, 28 February 2026
The signals this monthmonthly average, 0 = calm, 100 = tense
SignalAveragevs Feb
Escalation momentum95▲ +61.2
War & military87▲ +58.0
Media tone92▲ +56.8
Geopolitical risk (GPR)100▲ +54.0
Terrorism & mass violence86▲ +44.9
Diplomatic rupture86▲ +33.4
Economic coercion25▼ −5.9
Domestic unrest31▲ +1.5

March 2026 in context

By its average, March 2026 was the 4th tensest of 104 months since March 2018. Riftrate spent 31 of its 31 days in Tension or Crisis and 0 in Easing or Complacency. That is 24.9 points higher than in March 2025 (60.6). The countries whose news was most about armed violence: Gaza and the West Bank (32.7%), Lebanon (27.0%), Iraq (24.6%).

Day by day
DayRiftrateZoneDay change
31 March 202675.2Tension▲ +0.7
30 March 202674.6Tension▲ +0.8
29 March 202673.8Tension▼ −0.3
28 March 202674.1Tension▼ −0.4
27 March 202674.5Tension▼ −1.3
26 March 202675.8Crisis▼ −2.3
25 March 202678.1Crisis▼ −2.5
24 March 202680.6Crisis▼ −1.8
23 March 202682.4Crisis▼ −1.2
22 March 202683.7Crisis▼ −1.4
21 March 202685.1Crisis▼ −2.1
20 March 202687.1Crisis▼ −1.4
19 March 202688.5Crisis▼ −0.3
18 March 202688.8Crisis0.0
17 March 202688.8Crisis0.0
16 March 202688.8Crisis▼ −0.5
15 March 202689.4Crisis▼ −0.4
14 March 202689.8Crisis▼ −0.3
13 March 202690.0Crisis▼ −0.5
12 March 202690.5Crisis▼ −0.8
11 March 202691.3Crisis▼ −0.7
10 March 202692.0Crisis▼ −0.6
9 March 202692.6Crisis▼ −0.4
8 March 202693.0Crisis▼ −0.1
7 March 202693.1Crisis▲ +0.2
6 March 202692.9Crisis▲ +0.5
5 March 202692.4Crisis▲ +0.8
4 March 202691.6Crisis▲ +1.7
3 March 202689.8Crisis▲ +3.7
2 March 202686.2Crisis▲ +7.6
1 March 202678.6Crisis▲ +11.6
Previous: February 2026All of 2026Next: April 2026

Frequently asked questions

How tense was the world in March 2026?

Riftrate, the index of world tension from 0 (calm) to 100 (crisis), averaged 85.6 (Crisis) in March 2026: the 4th tensest of 104 months since March 2018.

What was the tensest day of March 2026?

7 March 2026, when Riftrate read 93.1 (Crisis).

Which countries were most tense in March 2026?

Gaza and the West Bank (32.7% of its news about armed violence), Lebanon (27.0% of its news about armed violence), Iraq (24.6% of its news about armed violence).