Riftrate · June 2025
World tension in June 2025
In June 2025, Riftrate averaged 49.5 (Neutral), down 12.1 points from May 2025. It peaked at 84.9 on 14 June 2025 and was lowest at 17.2 on 30 June 2025. Major event: Twelve-Day War (13 June 2025), Israel–Iran ceasefire (24 June 2025).
Average49.5Neutral
High84.914 June 2025
Low17.230 June 2025
Change vs May▼ −12.1average to average
The signals this monthmonthly average, 0 = calm, 100 = tense
| Signal | Average | vs May |
|---|---|---|
| Terrorism & mass violence | 33 | ▼ −38.3 |
| Diplomatic rupture | 32 | ▼ −35.4 |
| Media tone | 55 | ▲ +34.8 |
| Economic coercion | 27 | ▼ −28.1 |
| War & military | 25 | ▼ −26.3 |
| Geopolitical risk (GPR) | 96 | ▲ +8.1 |
| Domestic unrest | 25 | ▼ −6.5 |
| Escalation momentum | 62 | ▲ +4.8 |
June 2025 in context
By its average, June 2025 was the 51st tensest of 104 months since March 2018. Riftrate spent 16 of its 30 days in Tension or Crisis and 12 in Easing or Complacency. That is 15.4 points higher than in June 2024 (34.0). The countries whose news was most about armed violence: Gaza and the West Bank (26.8%), Yemen (25.8%), Israel (17.9%).
Day by day
| Day | Riftrate | Zone | Day change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 June 2025 | 17.2 | Complacency | ▼ −0.4 |
| 29 June 2025 | 17.6 | Complacency | ▼ −1.2 |
| 28 June 2025 | 18.8 | Complacency | ▼ −0.9 |
| 27 June 2025 | 19.7 | Complacency | ▼ −0.3 |
| 26 June 2025 | 20.0 | Complacency | ▼ −0.6 |
| 25 June 2025 | 20.6 | Complacency | ▼ −1.7 |
| 24 June 2025 | 22.3 | Complacency | ▼ −1.2 |
| 23 June 2025 | 23.5 | Complacency | ▼ −3.2 |
| 22 June 2025 | 26.7 | Easing | ▼ −1.9 |
| 21 June 2025 | 28.6 | Easing | ▼ −5.9 |
| 20 June 2025 | 34.5 | Easing | ▼ −7.3 |
| 19 June 2025 | 41.8 | Easing | ▼ −7.0 |
| 18 June 2025 | 48.8 | Neutral | ▼ −10.2 |
| 17 June 2025 | 59.0 | Tension | ▼ −13.3 |
| 16 June 2025 | 72.3 | Tension | ▼ −10.0 |
| 15 June 2025 | 82.3 | Crisis | ▼ −2.6 |
| 14 June 2025 | 84.9 | Crisis | ▲ +4.8 |
| 13 June 2025 | 80.0 | Crisis | ▲ +5.1 |
| 12 June 2025 | 74.9 | Tension | ▲ +1.3 |
| 11 June 2025 | 73.6 | Tension | ▲ +3.8 |
| 10 June 2025 | 69.9 | Tension | ▲ +2.8 |
| 9 June 2025 | 67.0 | Tension | ▲ +0.9 |
| 8 June 2025 | 66.1 | Tension | ▲ +2.3 |
| 7 June 2025 | 63.7 | Tension | ▲ +2.4 |
| 6 June 2025 | 61.4 | Tension | ▲ +1.5 |
| 5 June 2025 | 59.9 | Tension | ▲ +1.1 |
| 4 June 2025 | 58.8 | Tension | ▲ +0.6 |
| 3 June 2025 | 58.2 | Tension | ▲ +1.8 |
| 2 June 2025 | 56.4 | Tension | ▲ +1.0 |
| 1 June 2025 | 55.4 | Neutral | ▼ −0.9 |
Frequently asked questions
How tense was the world in June 2025?
Riftrate, the index of world tension from 0 (calm) to 100 (crisis), averaged 49.5 (Neutral) in June 2025: the 51st tensest of 104 months since March 2018.
What was the tensest day of June 2025?
14 June 2025, when Riftrate read 84.9 (Crisis).
Which countries were most tense in June 2025?
Gaza and the West Bank (26.8% of its news about armed violence), Yemen (25.8% of its news about armed violence), Israel (17.9% of its news about armed violence).