Riftrate · May 2025
World tension in May 2025
In May 2025, Riftrate averaged 61.5 (Tension), up 10.7 points from April 2025. It peaked at 73.7 on 10 May 2025 and was lowest at 52.8 on 19 May 2025.
Average61.5Tension
High73.710 May 2025
Low52.819 May 2025
Change vs April▲ +10.7average to average
The signals this monthmonthly average, 0 = calm, 100 = tense
| Signal | Average | vs Apr |
|---|---|---|
| Terrorism & mass violence | 72 | ▲ +17.6 |
| Economic coercion | 55 | ▲ +17.3 |
| War & military | 51 | ▲ +17.1 |
| Media tone | 20 | ▼ −15.3 |
| Geopolitical risk (GPR) | 88 | ▲ +15.2 |
| Diplomatic rupture | 68 | ▲ +13.0 |
| Domestic unrest | 32 | ▼ −10.2 |
| Escalation momentum | 57 | ▼ −7.5 |
May 2025 in context
By its average, May 2025 was the 28th tensest of 104 months since March 2018. Riftrate spent 24 of its 31 days in Tension or Crisis and 0 in Easing or Complacency. That is 4.6 points higher than in May 2024 (56.9). The countries whose news was most about armed violence: Yemen (28.3%), Gaza and the West Bank (25.4%), Myanmar (20.1%). Also this month: India strikes Pakistan (7 May 2025), US and China agree to cut tariffs (12 May 2025).
Day by day
| Day | Riftrate | Zone | Day change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 May 2025 | 56.3 | Tension | ▼ −2.2 |
| 30 May 2025 | 58.5 | Tension | ▼ −2.7 |
| 29 May 2025 | 61.2 | Tension | ▼ −4.1 |
| 28 May 2025 | 65.3 | Tension | ▼ −2.3 |
| 27 May 2025 | 67.5 | Tension | ▼ −0.5 |
| 26 May 2025 | 68.0 | Tension | ▲ +1.1 |
| 25 May 2025 | 67.0 | Tension | ▲ +1.7 |
| 24 May 2025 | 65.3 | Tension | ▲ +1.7 |
| 23 May 2025 | 63.5 | Tension | ▲ +3.4 |
| 22 May 2025 | 60.1 | Tension | ▲ +4.1 |
| 21 May 2025 | 56.0 | Tension | ▲ +2.6 |
| 20 May 2025 | 53.4 | Neutral | ▲ +0.6 |
| 19 May 2025 | 52.8 | Neutral | ▼ −0.3 |
| 18 May 2025 | 53.1 | Neutral | ▼ −0.4 |
| 17 May 2025 | 53.4 | Neutral | ▼ −2.3 |
| 16 May 2025 | 55.7 | Tension | ▼ −3.0 |
| 15 May 2025 | 58.7 | Tension | ▼ −5.0 |
| 14 May 2025 | 63.6 | Tension | ▼ −5.1 |
| 13 May 2025 | 68.7 | Tension | ▼ −2.2 |
| 12 May 2025 | 70.9 | Tension | ▼ −1.6 |
| 11 May 2025 | 72.5 | Tension | ▼ −1.2 |
| 10 May 2025 | 73.7 | Tension | ▲ +1.9 |
| 9 May 2025 | 71.8 | Tension | ▲ +2.9 |
| 8 May 2025 | 69.0 | Tension | ▲ +5.6 |
| 7 May 2025 | 63.4 | Tension | ▲ +5.7 |
| 6 May 2025 | 57.7 | Tension | ▲ +3.0 |
| 5 May 2025 | 54.7 | Neutral | ▲ +0.9 |
| 4 May 2025 | 53.8 | Neutral | ▼ −1.5 |
| 3 May 2025 | 55.2 | Neutral | ▼ −1.3 |
| 2 May 2025 | 56.5 | Tension | ▼ −3.1 |
| 1 May 2025 | 59.6 | Tension | ▼ −4.2 |
Frequently asked questions
How tense was the world in May 2025?
Riftrate, the index of world tension from 0 (calm) to 100 (crisis), averaged 61.5 (Tension) in May 2025: the 28th tensest of 104 months since March 2018.
What was the tensest day of May 2025?
10 May 2025, when Riftrate read 73.7 (Tension).
Which countries were most tense in May 2025?
Yemen (28.3% of its news about armed violence), Gaza and the West Bank (25.4% of its news about armed violence), Myanmar (20.1% of its news about armed violence).