RIFTRATE Get the gauge

World tension in July 2025

In July 2025, Riftrate averaged 44.8 (Neutral), down 4.7 points from June 2025. It peaked at 61.9 on 21 July 2025 and was lowest at 12.0 on 4 July 2025.

Average44.8Neutral
High61.921 July 2025
Low12.04 July 2025
Change vs June▼ −4.7average to average
Riftrate · July 2025
025507510016 Jun23 Jun30 Jun7 Jul14 Jul21 Jul28 JulIsrael–Iran ceasefire, 24 June 2025
The signals this monthmonthly average, 0 = calm, 100 = tense
SignalAveragevs Jun
Geopolitical risk (GPR)59▼ −37.4
Economic coercion42▲ +15.0
Diplomatic rupture46▲ +13.3
Terrorism & mass violence46▲ +12.3
Escalation momentum50▼ −11.7
War & military36▲ +11.1
Domestic unrest30▲ +4.6
Media tone58▲ +3.3

July 2025 in context

By its average, July 2025 was the 60th tensest of 104 months since March 2018. Riftrate spent 10 of its 31 days in Tension or Crisis and 9 in Easing or Complacency. That is 13.8 points higher than in July 2024 (30.9). The countries whose news was most about armed violence: Gaza and the West Bank (30.0%), Yemen (24.2%), Syria (17.4%).

Day by day
DayRiftrateZoneDay change
31 July 202557.1Tension▲ +0.7
30 July 202556.3Tension▲ +2.3
29 July 202554.0Neutral▲ +1.0
28 July 202553.0Neutral▼ −0.4
27 July 202553.4Neutral▲ +0.1
26 July 202553.3Neutral▼ −1.2
25 July 202554.4Neutral▼ −2.8
24 July 202557.2Tension▼ −1.6
23 July 202558.9Tension▼ −2.8
22 July 202561.7Tension▼ −0.3
21 July 202561.9Tension▲ +2.0
20 July 202560.0Tension▲ +0.8
19 July 202559.2Tension▲ +0.3
18 July 202558.9Tension▲ +2.5
17 July 202556.3Tension▲ +2.6
16 July 202553.8Neutral▲ +2.3
15 July 202551.4Neutral▲ +0.4
14 July 202551.0Neutral▼ −0.2
13 July 202551.2Neutral▲ +2.1
12 July 202549.2Neutral▲ +2.7
11 July 202546.5Neutral▲ +1.9
10 July 202544.5Neutral▲ +3.7
9 July 202540.8Easing▲ +6.7
8 July 202534.1Easing▲ +11.5
7 July 202522.6Complacency▲ +5.9
6 July 202516.7Complacency▲ +3.2
5 July 202513.5Complacency▲ +1.5
4 July 202512.0Complacency▼ −0.8
3 July 202512.9Complacency▼ −2.0
2 July 202514.9Complacency▼ −1.6
1 July 202516.5Complacency▼ −0.7
Previous: June 2025All of 2025Next: August 2025

Frequently asked questions

How tense was the world in July 2025?

Riftrate, the index of world tension from 0 (calm) to 100 (crisis), averaged 44.8 (Neutral) in July 2025: the 60th tensest of 104 months since March 2018.

What was the tensest day of July 2025?

21 July 2025, when Riftrate read 61.9 (Tension).

Which countries were most tense in July 2025?

Gaza and the West Bank (30.0% of its news about armed violence), Yemen (24.2% of its news about armed violence), Syria (17.4% of its news about armed violence).