Riftrate · October 2023
World tension in October 2023
In October 2023, Riftrate averaged 87.4 (Crisis), up 24.5 points from September 2023. It peaked at 98.4 on 19 October 2023 and was lowest at 60.0 on 4 October 2023. Major event: October 7 attack (7 October 2023).
Average87.4Crisis
High98.419 October 2023
Low60.04 October 2023
Change vs September▲ +24.5average to average
The signals this monthmonthly average, 0 = calm, 100 = tense
| Signal | Average | vs Sep |
|---|---|---|
| Media tone | 75 | ▲ +68.9 |
| Escalation momentum | 87 | ▲ +63.8 |
| Geopolitical risk (GPR) | 77 | ▲ +31.3 |
| Diplomatic rupture | 91 | ▲ +13.6 |
| Terrorism & mass violence | 99 | ▲ +10.5 |
| War & military | 99 | ▲ +7.1 |
| Domestic unrest | 95 | ▲ +4.4 |
| Economic coercion | 47 | ▼ −3.1 |
October 2023 in context
By its average, October 2023 was the 3rd tensest of 104 months since March 2018. Riftrate spent 31 of its 31 days in Tension or Crisis and 0 in Easing or Complacency. That is 21.4 points higher than in October 2022 (66.0). The countries whose news was most about armed violence: Gaza and the West Bank (32.1%), Syria (25.7%), Myanmar (25.1%).
Day by day
| Day | Riftrate | Zone | Day change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 October 2023 | 95.7 | Crisis | ▲ +0.1 |
| 30 October 2023 | 95.6 | Crisis | ▼ −0.2 |
| 29 October 2023 | 95.8 | Crisis | ▼ −0.1 |
| 28 October 2023 | 95.9 | Crisis | ▼ −0.1 |
| 27 October 2023 | 96.1 | Crisis | ▼ −0.5 |
| 26 October 2023 | 96.6 | Crisis | ▼ −0.9 |
| 25 October 2023 | 97.5 | Crisis | ▼ −0.6 |
| 24 October 2023 | 98.1 | Crisis | ▼ −0.1 |
| 23 October 2023 | 98.2 | Crisis | 0.0 |
| 22 October 2023 | 98.3 | Crisis | ▼ −0.1 |
| 21 October 2023 | 98.3 | Crisis | ▼ −0.1 |
| 20 October 2023 | 98.4 | Crisis | 0.0 |
| 19 October 2023 | 98.4 | Crisis | ▲ +0.1 |
| 18 October 2023 | 98.3 | Crisis | ▲ +0.1 |
| 17 October 2023 | 98.3 | Crisis | ▼ −0.1 |
| 16 October 2023 | 98.3 | Crisis | ▲ +0.1 |
| 15 October 2023 | 98.2 | Crisis | ▲ +0.5 |
| 14 October 2023 | 97.7 | Crisis | ▲ +1.0 |
| 13 October 2023 | 96.6 | Crisis | ▲ +1.8 |
| 12 October 2023 | 94.8 | Crisis | ▲ +3.0 |
| 11 October 2023 | 91.8 | Crisis | ▲ +4.8 |
| 10 October 2023 | 86.9 | Crisis | ▲ +6.3 |
| 9 October 2023 | 80.6 | Crisis | ▲ +7.6 |
| 8 October 2023 | 73.0 | Tension | ▲ +6.3 |
| 7 October 2023 | 66.7 | Tension | ▲ +4.4 |
| 6 October 2023 | 62.3 | Tension | ▲ +1.6 |
| 5 October 2023 | 60.7 | Tension | ▲ +0.8 |
| 4 October 2023 | 60.0 | Tension | ▼ −0.2 |
| 3 October 2023 | 60.2 | Tension | ▲ +0.1 |
| 2 October 2023 | 60.1 | Tension | ▼ −1.2 |
| 1 October 2023 | 61.4 | Tension | ▼ −0.4 |
Frequently asked questions
How tense was the world in October 2023?
Riftrate, the index of world tension from 0 (calm) to 100 (crisis), averaged 87.4 (Crisis) in October 2023: the 3rd tensest of 104 months since March 2018.
What was the tensest day of October 2023?
19 October 2023, when Riftrate read 98.4 (Crisis).
Which countries were most tense in October 2023?
Gaza and the West Bank (32.1% of its news about armed violence), Syria (25.7% of its news about armed violence), Myanmar (25.1% of its news about armed violence).