Riftrate · January 2020
World tension in January 2020
In January 2020, Riftrate averaged 53.0 (Neutral), up 22.7 points from December 2019. It peaked at 97.4 on 14 January 2020 and was lowest at 24.3 on 1 January 2020. Major event: Soleimani killed (3 January 2020).
Average53.0Neutral
High97.414 January 2020
Low24.31 January 2020
Change vs December▲ +22.7average to average
The signals this monthmonthly average, 0 = calm, 100 = tense
| Signal | Average | vs Dec |
|---|---|---|
| Geopolitical risk (GPR) | 70 | ▲ +55.2 |
| Diplomatic rupture | 53 | ▲ +35.1 |
| War & military | 47 | ▲ +29.5 |
| Terrorism & mass violence | 42 | ▲ +20.5 |
| Economic coercion | 29 | ▼ −18.3 |
| Domestic unrest | 41 | ▼ −16.9 |
| Media tone | 83 | ▲ +16.5 |
| Escalation momentum | 55 | ▼ −10.2 |
January 2020 in context
By its average, January 2020 was the 44th tensest of 104 months since March 2018. Riftrate spent 12 of its 31 days in Tension or Crisis and 17 in Easing or Complacency. That is 26.2 points higher than in January 2019 (26.8). The countries whose news was most about armed violence: Somalia (29.6%), Yemen (25.9%), Burkina Faso (24.9%).
Day by day
| Day | Riftrate | Zone | Day change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 January 2020 | 27.3 | Easing | ▲ +0.9 |
| 30 January 2020 | 26.4 | Easing | ▲ +1.2 |
| 29 January 2020 | 25.2 | Easing | ▼ −0.3 |
| 28 January 2020 | 25.5 | Easing | ▲ +0.1 |
| 27 January 2020 | 25.5 | Easing | ▼ −1.7 |
| 26 January 2020 | 27.2 | Easing | ▼ −3.9 |
| 25 January 2020 | 31.1 | Easing | ▼ −3.9 |
| 24 January 2020 | 35.0 | Easing | ▼ −5.9 |
| 23 January 2020 | 40.9 | Easing | ▼ −5.5 |
| 22 January 2020 | 46.5 | Neutral | ▼ −7.7 |
| 21 January 2020 | 54.1 | Neutral | ▼ −8.9 |
| 20 January 2020 | 63.0 | Tension | ▼ −10.1 |
| 19 January 2020 | 73.1 | Tension | ▼ −9.0 |
| 18 January 2020 | 82.1 | Crisis | ▼ −7.0 |
| 17 January 2020 | 89.0 | Crisis | ▼ −5.0 |
| 16 January 2020 | 94.0 | Crisis | ▼ −2.7 |
| 15 January 2020 | 96.7 | Crisis | ▼ −0.7 |
| 14 January 2020 | 97.4 | Crisis | ▲ +1.5 |
| 13 January 2020 | 95.8 | Crisis | ▲ +3.2 |
| 12 January 2020 | 92.7 | Crisis | ▲ +6.1 |
| 11 January 2020 | 86.6 | Crisis | ▲ +10.9 |
| 10 January 2020 | 75.7 | Crisis | ▲ +16.7 |
| 9 January 2020 | 59.0 | Tension | ▲ +16.7 |
| 8 January 2020 | 42.3 | Easing | ▲ +3.3 |
| 7 January 2020 | 39.0 | Easing | ▲ +0.7 |
| 6 January 2020 | 38.3 | Easing | ▲ +1.4 |
| 5 January 2020 | 36.8 | Easing | ▲ +2.7 |
| 4 January 2020 | 34.1 | Easing | ▲ +3.9 |
| 3 January 2020 | 30.3 | Easing | ▲ +1.4 |
| 2 January 2020 | 28.8 | Easing | ▲ +4.5 |
| 1 January 2020 | 24.3 | Complacency | ▲ +2.9 |
Frequently asked questions
How tense was the world in January 2020?
Riftrate, the index of world tension from 0 (calm) to 100 (crisis), averaged 53.0 (Neutral) in January 2020: the 44th tensest of 104 months since March 2018.
What was the tensest day of January 2020?
14 January 2020, when Riftrate read 97.4 (Crisis).
Which countries were most tense in January 2020?
Somalia (29.6% of its news about armed violence), Yemen (25.9% of its news about armed violence), Burkina Faso (24.9% of its news about armed violence).