Riftrate · 28 Sep – 4 Oct 2026 and the 3 weeks before
The week in world tension: 28 Sep – 4 Oct 2026
In week 40 of 2026 (28 Sep – 4 Oct 2026), Riftrate averaged 45.8 (Neutral), up 4.3 points from the week before. It peaked at 50.1 on 4 October 2026.
Average45.8Neutral
Vs the week before▲ +4.3average to average
High50.14 October 2026
Low43.81 October 2026
The week in brief
The signals that moved most: economic coercion (▼ −27.5) and geopolitical risk (gpr) (▲ +16.4). Most intense: Yemen (28.6%), Gaza and the West Bank (25.5%), Myanmar (23.3%). Biggest riser: Myanmar, up 9.7 points to 23.3% of its news about armed violence. Market risk at the end of the week: energy supply 85 (▲ +19.9), oil shipping routes 91 (▲ +18.5), major economies 54 (▲ +43.4). Events: Brazil election, first round 2026 (4 October 2026).
Frequently asked questions
How tense was the world in week 40 of 2026?
Riftrate, the index of world tension from 0 (calm) to 100 (crisis), averaged 45.8 (Neutral) from 28 Sep – 4 Oct 2026, up 4.3 points from the week before.
Which countries were most tense in week 40 of 2026?
Yemen (28.6% of its news about armed violence), Gaza and the West Bank (25.5% of its news about armed violence), Myanmar (23.3% of its news about armed violence).