RIFTRATE Get the gauge

World tension in May 2026

In May 2026, Riftrate averaged 44.0 (Easing), down 12.9 points from April 2026. It peaked at 48.4 on 1 May 2026 and was lowest at 36.3 on 28 May 2026.

Average44.0Easing
High48.41 May 2026
Low36.328 May 2026
Change vs April▼ −12.9average to average
Riftrate · May 2026
025507510016 Apr23 Apr30 Apr7 May14 May21 May28 May
The signals this monthmonthly average, 0 = calm, 100 = tense
SignalAveragevs Apr
Media tone32▼ −36.7
Escalation momentum10▼ −24.7
Economic coercion33▲ +13.7
Terrorism & mass violence41▼ −10.3
War & military40▼ −8.0
Diplomatic rupture57▼ −6.9
Geopolitical risk (GPR)91▼ −6.8
Domestic unrest22▲ +4.6

May 2026 in context

By its average, May 2026 was the 65th tensest of 104 months since March 2018. Riftrate spent 0 of its 31 days in Tension or Crisis and 11 in Easing or Complacency. That is 17.6 points lower than in May 2025 (61.5). The countries whose news was most about armed violence: Gaza and the West Bank (25.7%), Lebanon (23.1%), Mali (19.5%).

Day by day
DayRiftrateZoneDay change
31 May 202637.7Easing▼ −0.8
30 May 202638.4Easing▲ +1.1
29 May 202637.3Easing▲ +1.0
28 May 202636.3Easing▼ −1.2
27 May 202637.5Easing▼ −3.1
26 May 202640.6Easing▼ −3.4
25 May 202644.1Easing▼ −2.5
24 May 202646.6Neutral▲ +0.4
23 May 202646.1Neutral▼ −0.4
22 May 202646.5Neutral▼ −0.2
21 May 202646.7Neutral▲ +0.7
20 May 202646.0Neutral▲ +0.7
19 May 202645.4Neutral▲ +0.6
18 May 202644.8Neutral0.0
17 May 202644.7Neutral▲ +0.2
16 May 202644.6Neutral0.0
15 May 202644.6Neutral▼ −1.3
14 May 202646.0Neutral▼ −0.9
13 May 202646.9Neutral▲ +0.4
12 May 202646.5Neutral▲ +0.5
11 May 202646.0Neutral▲ +1.0
10 May 202644.9Neutral▼ −0.1
9 May 202645.1Neutral▼ −0.1
8 May 202645.2Neutral▲ +1.6
7 May 202643.6Easing▲ +0.7
6 May 202642.9Easing▼ −0.4
5 May 202643.3Easing▼ −0.4
4 May 202643.7Easing▼ −1.6
3 May 202645.3Neutral▼ −1.9
2 May 202647.2Neutral▼ −1.2
1 May 202648.4Neutral▼ −0.7
Previous: April 2026All of 2026Next: June 2026

Frequently asked questions

How tense was the world in May 2026?

Riftrate, the index of world tension from 0 (calm) to 100 (crisis), averaged 44.0 (Easing) in May 2026: the 65th tensest of 104 months since March 2018.

What was the tensest day of May 2026?

1 May 2026, when Riftrate read 48.4 (Neutral).

Which countries were most tense in May 2026?

Gaza and the West Bank (25.7% of its news about armed violence), Lebanon (23.1% of its news about armed violence), Mali (19.5% of its news about armed violence).