Riftrate · October 2025
World tension in October 2025
In October 2025, Riftrate averaged 46.7 (Neutral), down 15.4 points from September 2025. It peaked at 58.2 on 8 October 2025 and was lowest at 38.6 on 14 October 2025.
Average46.7Neutral
High58.28 October 2025
Low38.614 October 2025
Change vs September▼ −15.4average to average
The signals this monthmonthly average, 0 = calm, 100 = tense
| Signal | Average | vs Sep |
|---|---|---|
| Escalation momentum | 29 | ▼ −46.0 |
| Media tone | 23 | ▼ −34.8 |
| Geopolitical risk (GPR) | 77 | ▲ +22.9 |
| War & military | 35 | ▼ −19.4 |
| Terrorism & mass violence | 52 | ▼ −16.3 |
| Economic coercion | 49 | ▼ −14.4 |
| Diplomatic rupture | 56 | ▼ −8.7 |
| Domestic unrest | 44 | ▲ +4.2 |
October 2025 in context
By its average, October 2025 was the 54th tensest of 104 months since March 2018. Riftrate spent 3 of its 31 days in Tension or Crisis and 13 in Easing or Complacency. That is 17.4 points lower than in October 2024 (64.2). The countries whose news was most about armed violence: Yemen (19.9%), Gaza and the West Bank (18.0%), Sudan (16.5%).
Day by day
| Day | Riftrate | Zone | Day change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 October 2025 | 41.1 | Easing | ▼ −2.0 |
| 30 October 2025 | 43.1 | Easing | ▼ −2.3 |
| 29 October 2025 | 45.4 | Neutral | ▼ −0.7 |
| 28 October 2025 | 46.1 | Neutral | ▼ −1.0 |
| 27 October 2025 | 47.2 | Neutral | ▼ −0.8 |
| 26 October 2025 | 48.0 | Neutral | ▼ −1.4 |
| 25 October 2025 | 49.4 | Neutral | ▲ +1.0 |
| 24 October 2025 | 48.3 | Neutral | ▲ +2.5 |
| 23 October 2025 | 45.9 | Neutral | ▲ +2.7 |
| 22 October 2025 | 43.1 | Easing | ▼ −0.5 |
| 21 October 2025 | 43.6 | Easing | ▲ +0.5 |
| 20 October 2025 | 43.1 | Easing | ▲ +0.6 |
| 19 October 2025 | 42.6 | Easing | ▲ +0.9 |
| 18 October 2025 | 41.7 | Easing | ▲ +0.7 |
| 17 October 2025 | 41.0 | Easing | ▲ +1.0 |
| 16 October 2025 | 40.0 | Easing | ▲ +1.0 |
| 15 October 2025 | 39.0 | Easing | ▲ +0.4 |
| 14 October 2025 | 38.6 | Easing | ▼ −2.1 |
| 13 October 2025 | 40.7 | Easing | ▼ −3.0 |
| 12 October 2025 | 43.7 | Easing | ▼ −2.0 |
| 11 October 2025 | 45.7 | Neutral | ▼ −4.0 |
| 10 October 2025 | 49.7 | Neutral | ▼ −6.0 |
| 9 October 2025 | 55.8 | Tension | ▼ −2.4 |
| 8 October 2025 | 58.2 | Tension | ▲ +0.6 |
| 7 October 2025 | 57.6 | Tension | ▲ +2.2 |
| 6 October 2025 | 55.4 | Neutral | ▲ +1.5 |
| 5 October 2025 | 53.9 | Neutral | ▼ −0.1 |
| 4 October 2025 | 54.1 | Neutral | ▲ +1.9 |
| 3 October 2025 | 52.1 | Neutral | ▲ +4.1 |
| 2 October 2025 | 48.1 | Neutral | ▲ +1.5 |
| 1 October 2025 | 46.6 | Neutral | ▲ +0.6 |
Frequently asked questions
How tense was the world in October 2025?
Riftrate, the index of world tension from 0 (calm) to 100 (crisis), averaged 46.7 (Neutral) in October 2025: the 54th tensest of 104 months since March 2018.
What was the tensest day of October 2025?
8 October 2025, when Riftrate read 58.2 (Tension).
Which countries were most tense in October 2025?
Yemen (19.9% of its news about armed violence), Gaza and the West Bank (18.0% of its news about armed violence), Sudan (16.5% of its news about armed violence).