Riftrate · September 2025
World tension in September 2025
In September 2025, Riftrate averaged 62.1 (Tension), up 11.5 points from August 2025. It peaked at 84.8 on 15 September 2025 and was lowest at 45.4 on 6 September 2025.
Average62.1Tension
High84.815 September 2025
Low45.46 September 2025
Change vs August▲ +11.5average to average
The signals this monthmonthly average, 0 = calm, 100 = tense
| Signal | Average | vs Aug |
|---|---|---|
| Escalation momentum | 75 | ▲ +28.5 |
| Economic coercion | 64 | ▲ +19.8 |
| Terrorism & mass violence | 69 | ▲ +19.5 |
| War & military | 55 | ▲ +17.7 |
| Geopolitical risk (GPR) | 54 | ▼ −16.3 |
| Domestic unrest | 40 | ▲ +7.5 |
| Diplomatic rupture | 64 | ▲ +4.2 |
| Media tone | 58 | ▼ −0.3 |
September 2025 in context
By its average, September 2025 was the 27th tensest of 104 months since March 2018. Riftrate spent 19 of its 30 days in Tension or Crisis and 0 in Easing or Complacency. That is 8.7 points higher than in September 2024 (53.5). The countries whose news was most about armed violence: Yemen (28.8%), Gaza and the West Bank (23.1%), Ukraine (16.1%).
Day by day
| Day | Riftrate | Zone | Day change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 September 2025 | 46.0 | Neutral | ▼ −0.8 |
| 29 September 2025 | 46.8 | Neutral | ▼ −1.9 |
| 28 September 2025 | 48.6 | Neutral | ▼ −1.6 |
| 27 September 2025 | 50.3 | Neutral | ▼ −4.0 |
| 26 September 2025 | 54.2 | Neutral | ▼ −2.1 |
| 25 September 2025 | 56.3 | Tension | ▼ −2.3 |
| 24 September 2025 | 58.6 | Tension | ▼ −3.1 |
| 23 September 2025 | 61.7 | Tension | ▼ −2.8 |
| 22 September 2025 | 64.5 | Tension | ▼ −1.9 |
| 21 September 2025 | 66.4 | Tension | ▼ −2.5 |
| 20 September 2025 | 69.0 | Tension | ▼ −2.3 |
| 19 September 2025 | 71.3 | Tension | ▼ −4.3 |
| 18 September 2025 | 75.6 | Crisis | ▼ −5.2 |
| 17 September 2025 | 80.8 | Crisis | ▼ −3.9 |
| 16 September 2025 | 84.7 | Crisis | ▼ −0.1 |
| 15 September 2025 | 84.8 | Crisis | ▲ +0.9 |
| 14 September 2025 | 83.9 | Crisis | ▲ +2.4 |
| 13 September 2025 | 81.5 | Crisis | ▲ +3.9 |
| 12 September 2025 | 77.6 | Crisis | ▲ +6.0 |
| 11 September 2025 | 71.6 | Tension | ▲ +8.2 |
| 10 September 2025 | 63.3 | Tension | ▲ +8.3 |
| 9 September 2025 | 55.0 | Neutral | ▲ +5.4 |
| 8 September 2025 | 49.7 | Neutral | ▲ +3.7 |
| 7 September 2025 | 46.0 | Neutral | ▲ +0.6 |
| 6 September 2025 | 45.4 | Neutral | ▼ −2.7 |
| 5 September 2025 | 48.1 | Neutral | ▼ −4.0 |
| 4 September 2025 | 52.1 | Neutral | ▼ −3.7 |
| 3 September 2025 | 55.8 | Tension | ▼ −0.7 |
| 2 September 2025 | 56.5 | Tension | ▼ −0.7 |
| 1 September 2025 | 57.2 | Tension | ▼ −0.6 |
Frequently asked questions
How tense was the world in September 2025?
Riftrate, the index of world tension from 0 (calm) to 100 (crisis), averaged 62.1 (Tension) in September 2025: the 27th tensest of 104 months since March 2018.
What was the tensest day of September 2025?
15 September 2025, when Riftrate read 84.8 (Crisis).
Which countries were most tense in September 2025?
Yemen (28.8% of its news about armed violence), Gaza and the West Bank (23.1% of its news about armed violence), Ukraine (16.1% of its news about armed violence).