RIFTRATE Get the gauge

World tension in October 2021

In October 2021, Riftrate averaged 48.0 (Neutral), up 2.4 points from September 2021. It peaked at 57.8 on 23 October 2021 and was lowest at 35.8 on 15 October 2021.

Average48.0Neutral
High57.823 October 2021
Low35.815 October 2021
Change vs September▲ +2.4average to average
Riftrate · October 2021
025507510016 Sep23 Sep30 Sep7 Oct14 Oct21 Oct28 Oct
The signals this monthmonthly average, 0 = calm, 100 = tense
SignalAveragevs Sep
Escalation momentum43▲ +22.1
Domestic unrest60▲ +13.7
Diplomatic rupture59▼ −13.6
Terrorism & mass violence68▲ +10.7
Geopolitical risk (GPR)37▼ −9.4
Media tone9▼ −5.9
War & military73▲ +2.5
Economic coercion25▲ +0.8

October 2021 in context

By its average, October 2021 was the 53rd tensest of 104 months since March 2018. Riftrate spent 6 of its 31 days in Tension or Crisis and 8 in Easing or Complacency. That is 23.4 points higher than in October 2020 (24.6). The countries whose news was most about armed violence: Yemen (25.8%), Gaza and the West Bank (19.2%), Ethiopia (16.8%).

Day by day
DayRiftrateZoneDay change
31 October 202147.9Neutral▲ +2.7
30 October 202145.2Neutral▼ −2.0
29 October 202147.2Neutral▼ −2.4
28 October 202149.6Neutral▼ −1.2
27 October 202150.8Neutral▼ −1.1
26 October 202151.9Neutral▼ −2.4
25 October 202154.3Neutral▼ −3.1
24 October 202157.3Tension▼ −0.5
23 October 202157.8Tension▲ +1.1
22 October 202156.7Tension▲ +1.2
21 October 202155.6Tension▲ +2.6
20 October 202153.0Neutral▲ +3.8
19 October 202149.1Neutral▲ +5.9
18 October 202143.2Easing▲ +4.8
17 October 202138.4Easing▲ +2.1
16 October 202136.3Easing▲ +0.5
15 October 202135.8Easing▼ −0.5
14 October 202136.3Easing▼ −1.1
13 October 202137.4Easing▼ −1.7
12 October 202139.0Easing▼ −4.0
11 October 202143.1Easing▼ −1.6
10 October 202144.6Neutral▼ −1.9
9 October 202146.5Neutral▼ −0.9
8 October 202147.4Neutral▲ +0.2
7 October 202147.2Neutral▼ −1.7
6 October 202148.9Neutral▼ −1.6
5 October 202150.5Neutral▼ −1.1
4 October 202151.6Neutral▼ −2.9
3 October 202154.4Neutral▼ −1.5
2 October 202155.9Tension▼ −0.2
1 October 202156.1Tension▲ +0.6
Previous: September 2021All of 2021Next: November 2021

Frequently asked questions

How tense was the world in October 2021?

Riftrate, the index of world tension from 0 (calm) to 100 (crisis), averaged 48.0 (Neutral) in October 2021: the 53rd tensest of 104 months since March 2018.

What was the tensest day of October 2021?

23 October 2021, when Riftrate read 57.8 (Tension).

Which countries were most tense in October 2021?

Yemen (25.8% of its news about armed violence), Gaza and the West Bank (19.2% of its news about armed violence), Ethiopia (16.8% of its news about armed violence).