Riftrate · January 2021
World tension in January 2021
In January 2021, Riftrate averaged 41.3 (Easing), up 16.1 points from December 2020. It peaked at 62.4 on 13 January 2021 and was lowest at 10.3 on 1 January 2021.
Average41.3Easing
High62.413 January 2021
Low10.31 January 2021
Change vs December▲ +16.1average to average
The signals this monthmonthly average, 0 = calm, 100 = tense
| Signal | Average | vs Dec |
|---|---|---|
| Media tone | 59 | ▲ +44.1 |
| Escalation momentum | 69 | ▲ +35.8 |
| Domestic unrest | 54 | ▲ +22.9 |
| Economic coercion | 36 | ▼ −15.8 |
| Geopolitical risk (GPR) | 29 | ▲ +13.5 |
| War & military | 34 | ▲ +9.1 |
| Terrorism & mass violence | 39 | ▲ +5.7 |
| Diplomatic rupture | 56 | ▼ −0.1 |
January 2021 in context
By its average, January 2021 was the 72nd tensest of 104 months since March 2018. Riftrate spent 6 of its 31 days in Tension or Crisis and 18 in Easing or Complacency. That is 11.7 points lower than in January 2020 (53.0). The countries whose news was most about armed violence: Syria (21.8%), Central African Republic (20.8%), Niger (20.5%). Also this month: Attack on the US Capitol (6 January 2021).
Day by day
| Day | Riftrate | Zone | Day change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 January 2021 | 43.2 | Easing | ▼ −0.3 |
| 30 January 2021 | 43.5 | Easing | ▲ +1.0 |
| 29 January 2021 | 42.5 | Easing | ▲ +1.4 |
| 28 January 2021 | 41.0 | Easing | ▲ +2.9 |
| 27 January 2021 | 38.2 | Easing | ▼ −0.2 |
| 26 January 2021 | 38.3 | Easing | ▼ −0.6 |
| 25 January 2021 | 38.9 | Easing | ▲ +0.3 |
| 24 January 2021 | 38.6 | Easing | ▼ −2.2 |
| 23 January 2021 | 40.8 | Easing | ▼ −2.0 |
| 22 January 2021 | 42.8 | Easing | ▼ −2.2 |
| 21 January 2021 | 45.0 | Neutral | ▼ −3.8 |
| 20 January 2021 | 48.7 | Neutral | ▼ −3.5 |
| 19 January 2021 | 52.2 | Neutral | ▼ −2.7 |
| 18 January 2021 | 54.9 | Neutral | ▲ +0.2 |
| 17 January 2021 | 54.7 | Neutral | ▼ −1.3 |
| 16 January 2021 | 56.0 | Tension | ▼ −2.3 |
| 15 January 2021 | 58.3 | Tension | ▼ −2.6 |
| 14 January 2021 | 60.9 | Tension | ▼ −1.5 |
| 13 January 2021 | 62.4 | Tension | ▲ +2.4 |
| 12 January 2021 | 60.1 | Tension | ▲ +4.0 |
| 11 January 2021 | 56.1 | Tension | ▲ +2.6 |
| 10 January 2021 | 53.5 | Neutral | ▲ +5.9 |
| 9 January 2021 | 47.6 | Neutral | ▲ +8.3 |
| 8 January 2021 | 39.3 | Easing | ▲ +10.0 |
| 7 January 2021 | 29.3 | Easing | ▲ +6.6 |
| 6 January 2021 | 22.7 | Complacency | ▲ +3.5 |
| 5 January 2021 | 19.2 | Complacency | ▲ +2.9 |
| 4 January 2021 | 16.3 | Complacency | ▲ +3.0 |
| 3 January 2021 | 13.3 | Complacency | ▲ +1.9 |
| 2 January 2021 | 11.4 | Complacency | ▲ +1.1 |
| 1 January 2021 | 10.3 | Complacency | ▲ +0.8 |
Frequently asked questions
How tense was the world in January 2021?
Riftrate, the index of world tension from 0 (calm) to 100 (crisis), averaged 41.3 (Easing) in January 2021: the 72nd tensest of 104 months since March 2018.
What was the tensest day of January 2021?
13 January 2021, when Riftrate read 62.4 (Tension).
Which countries were most tense in January 2021?
Syria (21.8% of its news about armed violence), Central African Republic (20.8% of its news about armed violence), Niger (20.5% of its news about armed violence).