RIFTRATE Get the gauge

World tension in October 2026

In October 2026 so far, Riftrate averaged 59.2 (Tension), up 15.1 points from September 2026. It peaked at 75.5 on 15 October 2026 and was lowest at 40.0 on 31 October 2026.

Average59.2Tension
High75.515 October 2026
Low40.031 October 2026
Change vs September▲ +15.1average to average
Riftrate · October 2026
025507510016 Sep23 Sep30 Sep7 Oct14 Oct21 Oct28 Oct
The signals this monthmonthly average, 0 = calm, 100 = tense
SignalAveragevs Sep
Domestic unrest60▲ +36.5
Media tone56▲ +33.1
Escalation momentum45▲ +16.7
Geopolitical risk (GPR)77▲ +13.5
Economic coercion46▼ −12.5
Terrorism & mass violence49▲ +7.5
War & military50▲ +3.9
Diplomatic rupture66▲ +0.8

October 2026 in context

By its average, October 2026 was the 33rd tensest of 104 months since March 2018 so far. Riftrate spent 19 of its 31 days in Tension or Crisis and 3 in Easing or Complacency. That is 12.4 points higher than in October 2025 (46.7). The countries whose news was most about armed violence: Yemen (32.6%), Gaza and the West Bank (29.4%), Saudi Arabia (18.1%). Also this month: Brazil election, first round 2026 (4 October 2026).

Day by day
DayRiftrateZoneDay change
31 October 202640.0Easing▼ −1.3
30 October 202641.3Easing▼ −4.2
29 October 202645.5Neutral▼ −4.4
28 October 202649.9Neutral▼ −2.9
27 October 202652.8Neutral▼ −3.6
26 October 202656.4Tension▼ −4.3
25 October 202660.7Tension▼ −1.4
24 October 202662.1Tension▼ −0.1
23 October 202662.3Tension▼ −1.0
22 October 202663.3Tension▼ −2.2
21 October 202665.5Tension▼ −2.3
20 October 202667.8Tension▼ −2.5
19 October 202670.3Tension▼ −0.9
18 October 202671.2Tension▼ −1.5
17 October 202672.7Tension▼ −1.8
16 October 202674.5Tension▼ −0.9
15 October 202675.5Tension▲ +1.1
14 October 202674.4Tension▲ +1.7
13 October 202672.7Tension▲ +2.9
12 October 202669.8Tension▲ +4.4
11 October 202665.5Tension▲ +4.0
10 October 202661.4Tension▲ +3.2
9 October 202658.2Tension▲ +2.0
8 October 202656.2Tension▲ +2.3
7 October 202653.9Neutral▲ +2.0
6 October 202652.0Neutral▲ +1.3
5 October 202650.6Neutral▲ +0.6
4 October 202650.1Neutral▲ +1.5
3 October 202648.6Neutral▲ +3.4
2 October 202645.1Neutral▲ +1.3
1 October 202643.8Easing▼ −0.2
Previous: September 2026All of 2026

Frequently asked questions

How tense was the world in October 2026?

Riftrate, the index of world tension from 0 (calm) to 100 (crisis), averaged 59.2 (Tension) in October 2026 so far: the 33rd tensest of 104 months since March 2018.

What was the tensest day of October 2026?

15 October 2026, when Riftrate read 75.5 (Tension).

Which countries were most tense in October 2026?

Yemen (32.6% of its news about armed violence), Gaza and the West Bank (29.4% of its news about armed violence), Saudi Arabia (18.1% of its news about armed violence).