RIFTRATE Get the gauge

World tension in July 2026

In July 2026, Riftrate averaged 49.9 (Neutral), up 8.5 points from June 2026. It peaked at 73.1 on 30 July 2026 and was lowest at 21.9 on 7 July 2026.

Average49.9Neutral
High73.130 July 2026
Low21.97 July 2026
Change vs June▲ +8.5average to average
Riftrate · July 2026
025507510016 Jun23 Jun30 Jun7 Jul14 Jul21 Jul28 Jul
The signals this monthmonthly average, 0 = calm, 100 = tense
SignalAveragevs Jun
Escalation momentum76▲ +50.8
Media tone40▲ +21.9
Terrorism & mass violence52▲ +11.6
Geopolitical risk (GPR)69▼ −11.0
War & military51▲ +9.4
Diplomatic rupture45▼ −8.5
Economic coercion22▼ −8.1
Domestic unrest21▲ +3.3

July 2026 in context

By its average, July 2026 was the 50th tensest of 104 months since March 2018. Riftrate spent 17 of its 31 days in Tension or Crisis and 12 in Easing or Complacency. That is 5.1 points higher than in July 2025 (44.8). The countries whose news was most about armed violence: Gaza and the West Bank (26.8%), Mali (22.5%), Iran (21.1%).

Day by day
DayRiftrateZoneDay change
31 July 202671.3Tension▼ −1.8
30 July 202673.1Tension▲ +1.1
29 July 202672.0Tension▲ +0.6
28 July 202671.4Tension▲ +0.2
27 July 202671.2Tension▲ +0.7
26 July 202670.5Tension▲ +1.8
25 July 202668.7Tension▲ +2.6
24 July 202666.2Tension▲ +3.8
23 July 202662.4Tension▲ +1.8
22 July 202660.6Tension▲ +0.3
21 July 202660.3Tension▼ −1.5
20 July 202661.8Tension▲ +0.4
19 July 202661.4Tension▲ +0.9
18 July 202660.5Tension▲ +1.1
17 July 202659.4Tension▲ +0.3
16 July 202659.1Tension▲ +1.2
15 July 202657.9Tension▲ +2.6
14 July 202655.2Neutral▲ +6.4
13 July 202648.9Neutral▲ +6.2
12 July 202642.6Easing▲ +6.3
11 July 202636.3Easing▲ +4.7
10 July 202631.6Easing▲ +4.2
9 July 202627.4Easing▲ +3.2
8 July 202624.2Complacency▲ +2.3
7 July 202621.9Complacency▼ −0.1
6 July 202622.1Complacency▼ −1.6
5 July 202623.7Complacency▼ −2.0
4 July 202625.7Easing▼ −0.6
3 July 202626.3Easing▲ +0.3
2 July 202626.0Easing▲ +0.1
1 July 202626.0Easing▲ +1.0
Previous: June 2026All of 2026Next: August 2026

Frequently asked questions

How tense was the world in July 2026?

Riftrate, the index of world tension from 0 (calm) to 100 (crisis), averaged 49.9 (Neutral) in July 2026: the 50th tensest of 104 months since March 2018.

What was the tensest day of July 2026?

30 July 2026, when Riftrate read 73.1 (Tension).

Which countries were most tense in July 2026?

Gaza and the West Bank (26.8% of its news about armed violence), Mali (22.5% of its news about armed violence), Iran (21.1% of its news about armed violence).