Riftrate · October 2019
World tension in October 2019
In October 2019, Riftrate averaged 45.3 (Neutral), up 11.0 points from September 2019. It peaked at 87.2 on 16 October 2019 and was lowest at 19.2 on 6 October 2019.
Average45.3Neutral
High87.216 October 2019
Low19.26 October 2019
Change vs September▲ +11.0average to average
The signals this monthmonthly average, 0 = calm, 100 = tense
| Signal | Average | vs Sep |
|---|---|---|
| Domestic unrest | 77 | ▲ +34.4 |
| War & military | 46 | ▲ +20.3 |
| Escalation momentum | 37 | ▲ +16.5 |
| Diplomatic rupture | 47 | ▼ −14.3 |
| Terrorism & mass violence | 39 | ▲ +8.2 |
| Geopolitical risk (GPR) | 45 | ▲ +4.1 |
| Economic coercion | 44 | ▲ +1.2 |
| Media tone | 52 | ▲ +0.1 |
October 2019 in context
By its average, October 2019 was the 57th tensest of 104 months since March 2018. Riftrate spent 11 of its 31 days in Tension or Crisis and 18 in Easing or Complacency. That is 7.5 points higher than in October 2018 (37.7). The countries whose news was most about armed violence: Burkina Faso (23.3%), Yemen (17.9%), Afghanistan (17.1%).
Day by day
| Day | Riftrate | Zone | Day change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31 October 2019 | 34.2 | Easing | ▼ −0.7 |
| 30 October 2019 | 34.8 | Easing | ▲ +1.6 |
| 29 October 2019 | 33.3 | Easing | ▲ +2.5 |
| 28 October 2019 | 30.7 | Easing | ▲ +0.9 |
| 27 October 2019 | 29.8 | Easing | ▼ −0.9 |
| 26 October 2019 | 30.7 | Easing | ▼ −4.6 |
| 25 October 2019 | 35.3 | Easing | ▼ −3.8 |
| 24 October 2019 | 39.0 | Easing | ▼ −6.0 |
| 23 October 2019 | 45.0 | Neutral | ▼ −11.0 |
| 22 October 2019 | 56.0 | Tension | ▼ −10.4 |
| 21 October 2019 | 66.4 | Tension | ▼ −7.3 |
| 20 October 2019 | 73.7 | Tension | ▼ −4.9 |
| 19 October 2019 | 78.6 | Crisis | ▼ −4.2 |
| 18 October 2019 | 82.7 | Crisis | ▼ −3.8 |
| 17 October 2019 | 86.6 | Crisis | ▼ −0.6 |
| 16 October 2019 | 87.2 | Crisis | ▲ +4.0 |
| 15 October 2019 | 83.2 | Crisis | ▲ +6.6 |
| 14 October 2019 | 76.5 | Crisis | ▲ +8.2 |
| 13 October 2019 | 68.3 | Tension | ▲ +9.5 |
| 12 October 2019 | 58.8 | Tension | ▲ +11.5 |
| 11 October 2019 | 47.3 | Neutral | ▲ +13.1 |
| 10 October 2019 | 34.2 | Easing | ▲ +9.4 |
| 9 October 2019 | 24.8 | Easing | ▲ +3.9 |
| 8 October 2019 | 21.0 | Complacency | ▲ +1.5 |
| 7 October 2019 | 19.5 | Complacency | ▲ +0.3 |
| 6 October 2019 | 19.2 | Complacency | ▼ −0.7 |
| 5 October 2019 | 19.8 | Complacency | ▼ −0.2 |
| 4 October 2019 | 20.0 | Complacency | ▼ −0.9 |
| 3 October 2019 | 20.9 | Complacency | ▼ −1.0 |
| 2 October 2019 | 21.9 | Complacency | ▼ −1.6 |
| 1 October 2019 | 23.5 | Complacency | ▼ −0.9 |
Frequently asked questions
How tense was the world in October 2019?
Riftrate, the index of world tension from 0 (calm) to 100 (crisis), averaged 45.3 (Neutral) in October 2019: the 57th tensest of 104 months since March 2018.
What was the tensest day of October 2019?
16 October 2019, when Riftrate read 87.2 (Crisis).
Which countries were most tense in October 2019?
Burkina Faso (23.3% of its news about armed violence), Yemen (17.9% of its news about armed violence), Afghanistan (17.1% of its news about armed violence).